Sowing seeds of prosperity: Uncovering the calculated growth, instability and decomposition of cotton in India

DEVEGOWDA S R; ANKIT YADAV; NAGAVENI M; SAKET KUSHWAHA

doi:10.61475/JFS.2023.v36i3.11

DEVEGOWDA S R Department of Agricultural Economics, Rajiv Gandhi University (A Central University), Arunachal Pradesh -791 112
ANKIT YADAV Department of Agricultural Economics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi - 221 005, U P
NAGAVENI M Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad - 580 005, India
SAKET KUSHWAHA Department of Agricultural Economics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi - 221 005, U P

DOI: https://doi.org/10.61475/JFS.2023.v36i3.11

Keywords: Compound growth rate, Cuddy-della valle index, Decomposition, Instability

Abstract

The present study examines the growth, instability and decomposition of cotton in India. The compound growth
rate analysis revealed that the cotton cultivation area in India experienced a compound growth rate of 0.68 per cent, cotton
production showed a compound growth rate of 3.31 per cent and cotton yield exhibited a compound growth rate of 2.6
per cent from 1951 to 2020. The instability analysis using the Cuddy-Della Valle index indicates that cotton production had
a coefficient of variation of 42.45 per cent, while cotton yield had a coefficient of variation of 25.83 per cent. Decomposition
analysis further reveals that the contribution of yield effect to cotton production in India ranged from 145.27 per cent in
one period to -39.22 per cent in another period. The findings highlight significant growth in cotton area, production, and
yield in India, although with some fluctuations and instabilities. Technological advancements were identified as the driving
force behind the increased cotton production. The study emphasizes the importance of addressing production risks and
suggests policies that focus on improving yield to further enhance cotton production in India.