Historical and Projected rainfall analysis for North Interior Karnataka, India

Abstract

Indian agriculture is predominantly dependent on monsoon, which is experiencing changes over space and timewith increased variance, mainly due to anthropogenic global warming and climate change.The daily rainfall (RF) data of past40 years (1981-2020) was collected from India Meteorological Department (IMD) daily gridded data and future 20 years(2021-2040) was collected from CMIP-6 and analysed at district level. Basic statistics such as minimum, maximum, mean,standard deviation and coefficient of variation of annual RF and rainy days (RD) were analysed. Mann-Kendal trend testwas used for analysis of trend across NIK. Results showed a positive trend in both RF&RD for the historical and projectedperiod. In the past 40 years, the highest annual mean RF and RD was observed in Dharwad district (952.34 mm & 80)followed by Bidar (937.13 mm and 59 mm) and the lowest mean RF & RD was observed in Bagalkot district (527.52 mm& 39) followed by Vijayapur (535.33 mm & 38). For the next 20 years, the highest annual mean RF is expected in Haveridistrict (1559.07 mm) and the lowest in Kalaburgi district (1182.82 mm), the highest RD is expected in Vijayanagara district(127) and the lowest in Kalaburgi district (99)